Capital Markets - News and analysis

HBS: Reputation and competition: evidence from the credit rating industry, Bo Becker, Todd Milbourn, Working Paper 09-051, Oct. 3, 2008

Paper summary:

"Fair and accurate credit ratings arguably play an important role in the financial system. In an environment absent free entry of rating agencies, the provision of quality ratings is at least partially sustained by the reputational concerns of the rating agencies. The economically significant entry of a third agency into a market that was previously best described as a duopoly provides a unique experiment to examine the effect of increased competition on the disciplining effects of reputation. Using a variety of data sources, we find that competition leads to more issuer-friendly and less informative ratings. First, the credit ratings issues by the two incumbent agencies increased toward good ratings. Second, the correlation between bond yields and ratings fell. And lastly, negative stock price responses to announced rating downgrades are larger in absolute value (a downgrade in this weaker ratings environment is even worse news). Ultimately, our findings are consistent with models that suggest competition can impede the reputational mechanism."