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Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels believes that there will not be another great depression as policy makers have learnt their lessons
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« The New Deal: a kind of trial and error processSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard about the Great Moderation »

Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels believes that there will not be another great depression as policy makers have learnt their lessons

11/21/08


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Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels believes that there will not be another great depression as policy makers have learnt their lessons

Permalink 03:32:31 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 252 words   English (US)

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Categories: Economics Global

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Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum: Neither the Great Depression Nor Japan by Joachim Fels, Nov. 20, 2008

"Our base case for the global economy remains pretty grim. We think that this first synchronised recession in the advanced economies in more than 50 years will last at least until mid-2009, and emerging economies are slowing very sharply, too. Headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the US and in the UK (on the RPI measure) next year and looks set to fall below target in the euro area. However, we continue to look for an anaemic recovery to set in during 2H09 and 2010, and we do not believe that we will see a multi-year period of deflation (see Global Economics: Beyond a Deeper Recession: Tepid Recovery, November 10, 2008)"...

"Today, policymakers are acting very differently, thanks to the lessons drawn from the Great Depression. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the regulators have made it clear that no systematically important banks will be allowed to fail. Central banks have resorted to major monetary easing, consisting of a combination of much lower official rates and massive quantitative easing (see David Greenlaw’s piece that follows). Governments around the world are busy devising and enacting large fiscal stimulus packages. And, it appears unlikely that the world will see another trade war. So, the reason why another Great Depression is unlikely is that today’s policymakers understand what went wrong back then and are eager not to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors."

Source: Extract from article linked to above

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