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The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan, released Jan. 10, 2009, 6:00 am

One of the architects of the recovery plan has been Christina Romer, CEA-Chair designate. Professor Romer has done extensive research on the stimulus effect of taxes. In her research Romer concluded that an exogenous tax increase of one percent of GDP lowers real GDP by roughly three percent. In the recovery plan a tax multiplier of 0.99 is assumed. We all hope that this is a careful assumption and that the multiplier will turn out to be better at the end.
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