Archives for: April 2009
04/30/09
Autohaus Springer: Chrysler geht zum Insolvenzrichter more »
FT: Hedge fund managers warn on EU plans, April 29, 2009
Hedge fund managers and private equity bosses rounded on European Commission plans for sweeping new regulation of their industries, warning that proposals published on Wednesday in Brussels thre… more »
04/29/09
06:51:07 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com 
, 107 words 
Categories: Central Banks/Government, Industrial Firms
NYT: Holdouts Jeopardize Debt Plan for Chrysler, April 28, 2009
The Obama administration is prepared to force Chrysler into bankruptcy by the end of the week unless it gets unanimous consent from a group of banks and hedge funds to retire the automake… more »
04/28/09
Many New Yorkers on Tuesday were asking what the Obama administration could have been thinking when it authorized an Air Force One backup plane to fly over the city for photos capturing the presidential plane with the Statue of Liberty in the background.… more »
05:58:07 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 103 words
Categories: Market research, United States
NYT: U.S. Home Prices Continued to Decline in February, April 28, 2009
It was the thinnest of silver linings for America’s housing market: The stark decline in home prices leveled off a bit in February, according to data released Tuesday.
Housing p… more »
04/27/09
Picture from a bar toilet in Reykjavik. New use for bankers who left Iceland after the financial crisis.
Source: New York Times more »
07:40:24 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 137 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Bloomberg: Summers Says U.S. Economy to Decline ‘For Some, April 26, 2009
"The U.S. economy will continue to contract “for some time to come,” said Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council."
“I expect the economy wil… more »
VOX: China’s Syndrome: The “dollar trap” in historical perspective by Olivier Accominotti, April 23, 2009
China’s “dollar trap” has many analysts worried about its future resolution. This column discusses a similar situation in the 1920s when France h… more »
04/26/09
Times Online: We’re fleeing high-tax Britain, say City tycoons, April 26, 2009
Two of Britain’s best known entrepreneurs are considering leaving Britain in protest against Alistair Darling’s new 50 per cent tax rate, as leading figures from business a… more »
01:36:48 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 144 words
Categories: Analysts, Central Banks/Government, Banks/Investment Banks
While people are waiting for the US Government's bank stress test, estimates by private firms are released. Westwood Capital LLC, an investment banking boutique, expects that a view banks likely will face hundreds of billions of dollars in additional los… more »
This would be a step towards re-establishing a relationship which is based on rationality. The US and Switzerland share a lot of common values (liberalism, freedom, meritocracy etc.) and a normalization of relationships would be most welcome.
FT: Swis… more »
Mercer published its annual city ranking. Vienna has made it to the city with the world's best quality of life and has passed Zurich. Zurich is one of the cities which is heavily harmed by the financial crisis. The numbers of Zurich are heavily in the re… more »
04/24/09
FT: German business confidence rebounds, April 24, 2009
A surprisingly sharp rise in German business confidence has provided further evidence that Europe’s largest economy is over the worst of its recession and is closer to returning to growth than pr… more »
04/23/09
Jeffrey Sachs sees the role of the Obama government as "transformative". He points to the high risks of government spending. Under the Obama plan government spending will reach epic levels - with no guaranty that a major part of the money will be spent e… more »
04/22/09
This is bad!
NYT: Britain’s Debt Deepens; Its Outlook Grows Gloomier, April 22, 2009
Britain’s public debt is to reach £175 billion, or $255 billion, this year, the highest level since World War II, making it more difficult for the government to pu… more »
The IMF published great information about the current stability of the financial system. They expect global financial institutions to face now losses of US$ 4.1 billion:
Global Financial Stability Report, Responding to the Financial Crisis and Measuri… more »
04/21/09
NYT: Spain’s Falling Prices Fuel Deflation Fears in Europe, April 20, 2009
Spain — Faced with plunging orders, merchants across this recession-wracked country are starting to do something that many of them have never done: cut retail prices.
Prices… more »
Auer and Wehrmüller studied the impact on Eastern European credit losses on CDS spreads. They explain that the increases of CDS spreads in various countries in the region can only explain a fraction of the increase. They explain that financial market par… more »
04/20/09
NYT: Why Isn’t the Brain Green? by Jon Gertner, April 16, 2009
"There are some unfortunate implications here. In analytical mode, we are not always adept at long-term thinking; experiments have shown a frequent dislike for delayed benefits, so we un… more »
via Angry Bear more »
pointed remarks ... with some truth in it!?! more »
Seth Godin who popularized the topic of permission marketing about the hierarchy of presentations:
The hierarchy of presentations
A presentation is a precious opportunity. It's a powerful arrangement... one speaker, an attentive audience, all in… more »
Source: D. Short more »
NYT: Irrational Exuberance, April 17, 2009
"There was nothing rational, well informed or unemotional about the behavior that has all but collapsed the economy. That leaves most of America’s economists without a believable framework for explaining how… more »
04/19/09
05:41:13 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 238 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
NYT: It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative by Gregory Mankiw, April 18, 2009
This is an interesting idea of one of Gregory Mankiw's students of how to get acceptance for negative interest rates:
"The problem with negative interest rates, howev… more »
08:01:26 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 54 words
Categories: News, Analysts, Investment, Banks/Investment Banks
Banks such as GS were reporting Q1 (2009) profits also due to strong profits in the fixed income departments. Does this mean that the credit markets are showing signs of recovery? In some ways yes, but only within the safety net of government guarantees.… more »
Bloomberg: Bernanke Says Crisis Damage Likely to Be Long-Lasting, April 17, 2009
Ben Bernanke practices in understatement:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the collapse of U.S. lending will probably cause “long-lasting” damage to home… more »
04/18/09
09:42:58 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 30 words
Categories: Global natural Resources Trends, Strategy
This is an excurse from the subjects we normally deal with. As it is just great I have to post it. Have a nice Sunday!
click to go to video more »
02:48:24 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 89 words
Categories: Deals, Investment Strategy, Market Characteristics
MarketWatch: Venture investing hits lowest level in over a decade
Venture capitalists busy keeping existing firms afloat; Clean tech deals tumble, April 18, 2009
Venture capitalists, who make it their business to seed successive generations of compan… more »
Ayotte, Kenneth and Skeel, David A.,Bankruptcy or Bailouts?(March 2, 2009). U of Penn, Inst for Law & Econ Research Paper No. 09-11; Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 09-05. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1362639
Paper Ab… more »
Reuters: EXCLUSIVE-UPDATE 3-GM readies all-equity offer for debt-sources, April 18, 2009
"The Obama administration has directed General Motors Corp (GM.N) to prepare a new restructuring plan that would pay off bondholders and the automaker's major uni… more »
The latest Princeton Review has published the traditional US business school ranking according to various categories. The toughest to get into are:
1) Stanford
2) Harvard
3) Columbia
4) Berkeley
5) Wharton
6) MIT
7) Yale
8) NYU
9) Mi… more »
04/17/09
click to go to Robert C. Merton MIT Lecture
Robert C. Merton explains how the vast global economic collapse has come about, and how financial innovations at the heart of the collapse could also be tools for reconstruction. more »
NYT: Green Shoots and Glimmers by Paul Krugman, April 16, 2009
"1. Things are still getting worse. Industrial production just hit a 10-year low. Housing starts remain incredibly weak. Foreclosures, which dipped as mortgage companies waited for details… more »
Bloomberg: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Rose to 61.9 in April, April 17, 2009
Confidence among U.S. consumers improved in April for a second month amid signs the longest recession in the postwar era may be easing. The Reuters/University of M… more »
06:46:37 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 394 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Presentation to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies—“Meeting the Challenges of the Financial Crisis”, organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College,New York City, by Janet L. Yellen, Preside… more »
04/16/09
Freakonomics about the book: Freakonomics (NYT): A “Spasmodic, Improvisational Response”: Richard Posner Tackles the New Depression by Dwyer Gunn, April 14, 2009
... and how Richard Posner earlier answered a question about the causes of the financial… more »
Source: San Francisco Fed
San Francisco Fed: Economic Research and Data, Fed Views by John C. Williams, April 9, 2009
"Core and overall measures of price inflation have fallen considerably, reflecting declines in commodity prices and the emergence… more »
FT: China’s quarterly GDP slows to 6.1%, April 16, 2009
China’s economy slowed in the first quarter to its weakest pace on record, but an improvement in data for March offers tentative signs that the worst may be over for the world’s third-largest eco… more »
04/15/09
DIW (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung): Press Release, April 14, 2009
The reputed Berlin based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) announced in a press release on April 14, 2009, that it will not prepare a growth forecast for 2010… more »
06:40:14 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 26 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe
Paul Krugman believes that Europe is not doing enough to fight the economic crisis. Contrary to the US:
FAZ: Paul Krugman geißelt Europas Krisenmanagement, April 14, 2009 more »
06:11:27 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 40 words
Categories: News, Corporate Governance, Banks/Investment Banks
The Q1 results reported by Goldman Sachs might not be as good as they seem to be at first sight:
Paul Krugman: Bush budgeting lives — at Goldman Sachs, April 14, 2009
Barry Ritholtz: How to Puff Up Earnings, Goldman Sachs Style, April 14, 2009 more »
05:56:58 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 122 words
Categories: News, Corporate Governance, Central Banks/Government, Banks/Investment Banks
I thought that public firms are urged to transparency anyway... The step planned by government is certainly a necessary one. This type of transparency is an important step to restore confidence in the banking system.
NYT: U.S. Planning to Reveal Data… more »
FT: Uncertainty bedevils the best system by Edmund Phelps, April 14, 2009
In countries operating a largely capitalist system, there does not appear to be a wide understanding among its actors and overseers of either its advantages or its hazards. Igno… more »
04/14/09
06:30:40 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 50 words
Categories: Central Banks/Government, Banks/Investment Banks
The Q1 profits reported by GS do not mean that the banking problems vanished. These problems have to be addressed immediately as a healthy financial systems is one of the prerequisites for economic recovery:
FT Economistsforum: Geithner and Summers ne… more »
FT: Goldman push to repay $10bn, April 13, 2009
Goldman Sachs signalled its determination to be the first major bank to emerge from the financial crisis, revealing plans late on Monday to raise $5bn to pay back government funds and reporting stronger-… more »
04/13/09
click to go to CNBC video
See also RGE Monitor's (Nouriel Roubini) outlook. They are not quite as optimistic:
China’s Economy in 2009 and Beyond, Nouriel Roubini, Apr 8, 2009 more »
The Swiss architect Peter Zumthor wins this year's Pritzker Architecture Price, one of the most important global awards in architecture.
NZZ: Pritzker-Preis für Peter Zumthor, April 12, 2009 more »
FT: Bankruptcy-related M&A has ‘only just begun’, April 12, 2009
Bankruptcy-related mergers and acquisitions have hit their highest level globally since August 2004, and are set to keep rising as more companies are forced into distressed sales,… more »
06:09:10 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 138 words
Categories: Deals, Market Characteristics, News
FT: Goldman to buy discounted private equity holdings, April 12, 2009
Goldman Sachs has raised $5.5bn for a fund to buy discounted private equity holdings – the largest amount ever raised for a fund of this type – as investors anticipate a flood of fo… more »
04/12/09
05:03:48 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 127 words
Categories: Deals, Entrepreneurship/Leadership/Innovation
NYT: Skype Founders May Seek to Buy It Back, April 10, 2009
The European duo who created Skype and sold it to eBay for billions may have another trick up their sleeve: buying it back.
Niklas Zennstrom and Janus Friis, the founders of Skype, have ap… more »
Portrait of Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., by Mukul Pandya, from a presentation at a Wharton executive series, April 21, 1999.
WARREN BUFFETT ON INVESTING AND LEADERSHIP:
“I’m Wired for This Game”
By Mukul Pandya, Senior E… more »
04/11/09
Dallas Fed: National Economic Update, April 10, 2009
Recently released data reflect a continued contraction of the U.S. economy. The downturn deepened as industrial capacity fell to new lows and the labor market weakened further. Meanwhile, financial… more »
Atlanta Fed: The mean and the variance of the longer-term inflation outlook, April 6, 2009
Source: Atlanta Fed
The figure above shows the consensus CPI forecast for the Blue Chip panel of economic forecasters from March 10:
The “average”… more »
04/10/09
Guardian: George Soros warns 'zombie' banks could suck lifeblood out of economy, April 7, 2009
Billionaire investor George Soros has warned that bailing out banks could turn them into "zombies" that suck the lifeblood of the American economy, which he… more »
08:33:59 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 6 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
click to go to FT interview more »
07:59:53 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 253 words
Categories: Analysts, Investment, Academic
Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets, Simon Gilchrist, Vladimir Yankov, Egon Zakraj, Boston University, April 7, 2009
Abstract:
"To identify disruptions in credit markets, research on the ro… more »
Real Time Economics (WSJ): A Look Inside Fed’s Balance Sheet, April 9, 2009 more »
04/09/09
FT: Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, April 7, 2009
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains.
3. People who were driving a school bu… more »
04/08/09
FT: A chance for bankers to refocus their talents by Gillian Tett, April 6, 2009
A few weeks ago, some science and engineering students at London University lobbed me a question. “Lots of people on our course used to go to work for banks, but now that… more »
People quoted here should be asked in hindsight what they now know they did not know... about Iraq for example...
globaandmail.com: Obama turns left
The U.S. President is putting the state in charge of the economy in the land of free enterprise. Are… more »
Reuters: U.S. carmakers at 70 percent risk of bankruptcy: Moody's, April 7, 2009
Moody's Investors Service said it still sees a 70 percent chance of bankruptcy for Detroit's automakers, given the difficulty of winning sweeping concessions from credito… more »
NYT: Economic Crisis Sweeps Eastern Ukraine by David Stern, April 7, 2009
Few areas of Europe have taken such a body blow from the world economic crisis as the industrial heartland of eastern Ukraine, home to giant enterprises in the steel and metals… more »
04/07/09
Corporate Misgovernance at the World Bank, HBS Working Paper, No. 09-108, Ashwin Kaja and Eric Werker, March 2009
Abstract:
"We test for evidence of corporate misgovernance at the World Bank. Most major decisions at the World Bank are made by its… more »
05:38:01 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 94 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Follwing graphs are sourced from the highly interesting VOX contribution of Professors Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O’Rourke
VOX: A Tale of Two Depressions by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O'Rourke, April 6, 2009
Following graph shows that there… more »
05:14:46 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 96 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
NYT: Economy Falling Years Behind Full Speed, April 6, 2009
As the recession grinds on, more and more of the nation’s means of production — its workers, its factories, its retail outlets, its freight lines, its bank lending, even its new inventions —… more »
04/06/09
07:38:03 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 176 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Source: The Wall Street Journal
WSJ: From Bubble to Depression? by Steven Gjerstad and Vernon L. Smith, April 6, 2009
Bubbles have been frequent in economic history, and they occur in the laboratories of experimental economics under conditions… more »
Reuters: At the G20, nothing is free, April 2, 2009 more »
07:07:50 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 137 words
Categories: Corporate Governance, Banks/Investment Banks
FT: US prepared to oust bank chiefs, April 5, 2009
Tim Geithner warned on Sunday that the US government would consider ousting board members at American banks as a condition for giving the institutions “exceptional” assistance in the future.
The Tr… more »
04/05/09
Source: The Guardian more »
12:36:27 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 241 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe, Economics Global, Economics Asia
Source: Financial Times
FT: Signs of green shoots raise hopes, April 3, 2009
"In the US, economists point to surprisingly solid retail sales, which suggest consumer spending grew by more than 1 per cent in the first quarter. US home sales look to b… more »
This is a satellite picture of the Korea region by night. The circled North Korea region is almost dark. Not because they just had an environmental initiative of not turning on the lights but because most people are too poor to have electrical light. Nor… more »
Project Syndicate: China’s Recovery and Global Growth by Martin Feldstein
China is likely to be the first of the major economies to recover from the current global downturn. Its pace of expansion may not reach the double-digit rates of recent years, b… more »
04/04/09
Economist: The rich under attack, April 2, 2009
"The market’s self-correction will not be enough, however. Higher taxes will eventually be inevitable, since so many governments have lurched heavily into deficit. But politicians must tread carefully.… more »
04/03/09
click to go to video more »
click to go on CNBC video more »
Source: D. Short more »
WSJ: Obama's $163,000 Tax Bomb by Michael Boskin, April 2, 2009
"The CBO baseline cumulative deficit for the Obama 2010-2019 budget is $9.3 trillion. How much additional deficit and debt does Mr. Obama add relative to a do-nothing budget with none of… more »
04/02/09
07:33:16 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 6 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Paul Krugman: Partying like it’s 1931 more »
Economist: Divided we stand, April 1, 2009
World leaders are descending on London, just as anti-capitalist protesters prepare to unfurl their banners. Barack Obama, who remains widely popular at home and abroad, met Gordon Brown, the British prime min… more »
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