Archives for: December 2009
12/31/09
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz about five lessons to learn:China Daily: Harsh lessons we may need to learn again, by Joseph E. Stiglitz, Dec. 31, 2009The fifth lesson is about innovation and the benefit for the ordinary people..."Indeed, fina… more »
"While researchers, such as Roubini and Sachs (1989), have examined how political polarization might affect deficits, and others, such as Lane (2003), have evaluated the cyclicality of deficits, there has been no significant previous work on internationa… more »
12/30/09
The Greek government has pushed the country to the brink of national bankruptcy, threatening the whole euro zone as a result. But the elite believes that other members of the EU's currency union will pay up -- despite widespread inefficiency and corrupti… more »
Governments of major Eurozone countries will have to deal with the fragile public finances the next years. This will definitely have a major negative impact on growth prospects as public spending will be limited, as compared to previous years. Furthermor… more »
It is worth to watch the video at least until the nineteen sixties: Visualizing empires decline from Pedro M Cruz on Vimeo. more »
12/29/09
ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet warns euro-zone governments about excessive public-sector deficits
02:41:52 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com 
, 267 words 
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
The Economist has a good article about the importance of migration for the US. It mentions that a lot of companies have been founded by educated and talented immigrants and that the same is true for innovation. The fact that people want to live in the US… more »
08:24:13 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 28 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Reinhart and Rogoff discuss some of the qualities we may see as the U.S. comes out of the current financial and economic crisis, among them taxes and inflation. more »
To any interested in the origins and consequences of financial crises we recommmend to read the book "This Time is different" by Reinhart and Rogoff. The authors have compiled an impressive amount of data (government defaults, statistics on inflation etc… more »
12/28/09
Brookings: Rebalancing Growth in Asia, by Eswar Prasad, Dec. 2009With the increasing importance of Asian emerging markets in the world economy, rebalancing growth in developing Asia toward more reliance on domestic demand and less on exports is an im… more »
Mankiw does not think that the exploding monetary base is by itself a reason to fear a coming surge in inflation.Mankiw Blog: The monetary base is exploding. So what? Dec. 28, 2009 more »
New York Times: The Big Zero, by Paul Krugman, Dec. 27, 2009 more »
08:43:39 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 262 words
Categories: Economics Europe, Economics Global
Deutsche Bank Research: Shadow economy defies crisis – year-end note with a wry pitch, Dec. 21, 2009"Since the end of the new economy crisis in 2003 the share of the shadow economy has decreased steadily in Germany, from just under 17% to 14.2% of… more »
12/25/09
China, when building new infrastructure, is relying heavily on economic growth above the 7%. Once they have a dip in growth, the country could face tremendous overcapacity in infrastructure such as commercial buildings and residential buildings. Such an… more »
07:05:52 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 39 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Feldstein believes that the current low interest fed policy could have led to new asset bubbles. As possible examples he mentions the stock market, gold and long-term bond prices.
Bloomberg: Harvard's Feldstein Discusses Fed Policy, Asset Bubbles: Vid… more »
12/23/09
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland: Conducting Monetary Policy when Interest Rates Are Near Zero, by Charles T. Carlstrom and Andrea Pescatori, Dec. 21, 2009Perhaps the best way for the central bank to communicate that it plans to deliver on its promi… more »
12/22/09
11:42:30 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 0 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
12/21/09
The Swiss Economic Institute KOF reports on December 18, 2009, that the Swiss GDP reached its nadir in mid-2009. In comparison with the previous year, the economy will shrink by 2.9 per cent this year. In 2010, the GDP will grow by 0.6 per cent. This mod… more »
12/20/09
The New York Times published a country misery index created by a Moody's analyst. Criteria are a country's budget deficit and unemployment rate:NYT: These Days, Countries in Misery Have Lots of Company, by Floyd Norris, December 18, 2009 more »
Part I:
Part II:
Part III: more »
Source: Leonardo Monasterio's Blog
Leonardo Monasterio shows a Zimbabwe toilet sign, saying that Zimbabwe dollars should not be used to clean. A warning in a country of hyperinflation. more »
08:29:00 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 107 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Various commentators doubt whether the dollar will loose its status. A major depreciation of the dollar would hit accumulated capital inside and outside the U.S.. Various forces will try to avoid this. Find here some interesting analyses and commentaries… more »
12/19/09
09:16:06 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 321 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global, Economics Asia
Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer is very sceptical about an agreement where the U.S. accepts serious cuts in carbon emissions as he believes that this would give a relative economic advantage to China and India as they are less restrictive in t… more »
Here ist the European Central Bank's lates Financial Stability Review (December 2009). Important key elements of the overall assessment can be characterized as following:Strains on the euro area financial system have clearly been diminishing Than… more »
12/18/09
Cesifo: Ifo Business Climate Germany, Ifo Business Climate Further Improved; Results of the December 2009 Ifo Business Survey more »
Here are two interesting articles (a) about the role of China as an enginge for recovery and (b) the degree of the undervaluation of the renminbiVoyeux.org: Making room for China in the world economy, by Dani Rodrik, Dec. 17, 2009Voyeux.org: On t… more »
click for larger pictureSource: Voyeux.orgUsing inflation to erode the US public debt, by Joshua Aizenman, Nancy Marion, Dec. 18, 2009As the US debt-to-GDP ratio rises towards 100%, policymakers will be tempted to inflate away the debt. This… more »
12/17/09
EconPapers: The Good, the Bad, and the Talented: Entrepreneurial Talent and Other-Regarding Behavior, July 2009This paper should give some hints regarding the distinction between investment banking talent and development talent in the manufacturing a… more »
George Papaconstantinou speeks to Martin Wolf the Financial Times chief economist commenatator, on the credibility of his strategy to take greece out of the financial crisis.click on this link to get to the video more »
12/16/09
Alan S. Blinder sees the possibility of a strong rebound of the American economy:
WSJ: The Case for Optimism on the Economy; The credit markets are healing and net job creation may be only a month or two away, by Alan S. Blinder, Dec. 15, 2009.
"Th… more »
ed MarketObservation posts:MarketObservation: "Monetary Stalingrad" in the East, Feb. 16, 2009MarketObservation: Banks heavily active in Eastern Europe may come under downward pressure, according to Moody's, Feb. 17, 2009 more »
Eurointelligence: Bad news from Greece: It is open season for the speculators, Dec. 15, 2009This is the result of years of mismanagement by the socialist Papandreou clan."During the day yesterday, Greek CDS jumped by 18bps, the FT reports. The yi… more »
12/15/09
Investment banking chiefs could not show up at a planned meeting with president Obama, allegedly due to a foggy sky which hindered the plane to start.NYT: Putting Obama on Hold, in a Hint of Who’s Boss, By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Dec. 14, 2009"Pres… more »
European Economic Forecast: Interactive map more »
click for larger image more »
12/14/09
How to Overcome the Financial and Economic CrisisDo We Face a Credit Crunch?Klaus-Jürgen Gern, Nils JannsenRedistribution Through the Geithner PlanDennis SnowerThe German Bad Bank Scheme Harmen LehmentPreventing Deflation Through Fi… more »
12/13/09
01:50:29 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 208 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Spiegel Online International: Interview with US Economic Recovery Advisory Board Chair Paul Volcker; America Must 'Reassert Stability and Leadership', Dec. 12, 2009
Manufacturing matters!
SPIEGEL: At that time, America was the biggest exporter in t… more »
12/11/09
07:11:52 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 86 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global, Economics Asia
EuroIntellignece: The answer to our problem with China is not revaluation – but Asian monetary cooperation, by Stefan Collignon, Dec. 10, 2009
Chinese authorities have rejected demands by Americans and Europeans to appreciate their exchange rate. A co… more »
12/10/09
07:10:58 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 103 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Source: FT: The dollar’s fall reflects a new role for reserves, by Martin Feldstein, Dec. 9, 2009Here is part of Feldstein's conclusion: "As this portfolio rebalancing comes to an end, demand for dollars will stop falling. At the same time, the d… more »
12/09/09
Scientific American: The Psychology of Social Status; How the pursuit of status can lead to aggressive and self-defeating behavior, by Adam Waytz, Dec. 8, 2009
Nobel Laureate economist, John Harsanyi, said that “apart from economic payoffs, social sta… more »
12/08/09
Tim Duy's Fed Watch: Structural and Cyclical, Dec. 6, 2009
For several months, I have been telling stories that decompose US economic activity into what I think of as cyclical and structural dynamics. I believe the distinction is very important to fi… more »
12/07/09
click for larger image
The New York Times has a good interactive graph about winners and loosers as the dollar falls:
NYT: Winners and Losers as the Dollar Falls, by Bill Marsh more »
12/05/09
click for larger imageSource: Voyeux.orgGlobal imbalances were shrinking during the latest downturn. Baldwin and Taglioni show that during the recovery the US, Germany, China and others will return to their old path and that imbalances will incre… more »
NYT: Jobs Report Is Strongest Since the Start of the Recession , Dec. 4, 2009The nation’s employers not only have stopped eliminating large numbers of jobs, but appear to be on the verge of rebuilding the American work force, devastated by the recess… more »
12/04/09
This is another view in the pluralistic world of economic opinions. Robin Wells sees the savings glut of countries who have their trade balances under control as a reason for the crisis. There are also market mechnism which determines who is becoming a b… more »
12/03/09
Project Syndicate: The Magic of the Market, by Martin Feldstein more »
We all hope that his predictions are wrong. more »
07:50:30 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 118 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Asia
An understandable view of somebody who has tremendous amounts of dollars.
Bloomberg: China Says Dollar, Not Yuan, Needs Global Attention, Dec. 3, 2009
The world should pay more attention to the stability of the dollar rather than the value of Chin… more »
12/02/09
Project Syndicate: The Limits of Dubai, by Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard), Dec. 2009
Global investors are in a giant huff over Dubai’s decision to allow its flagship private company Dubai World to seek a six-month standstill (implying at least partial defau… more »
12/01/09
The financial times reports this today:"The ruler of Dubai on Tuesday sought to deflect criticism of his economic policies by attacking the media for its coverage of the crisis and global markets for misreading an announcement by Dubai World, a state… more »
PM Report has among other subjects some details on Dubai World's plan to restructure its debt. more »
The Economist has an interesting article about the Dubai debt problems.
The Economist: A financial sandstorm, Nov. 30, 2009
Potential rescue investors might decide which businesses are worth to be rescued and which are not. A rational decision whic… more »
06:35:49 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 203 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
MoneyWatch: Will Consumption Growth Return to Its Pre-Recession Level? by Prof. Mark Thoma, Nov. 30, 2009 more »
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George A. Akerlof, Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Alan S. Blinder, Buffett, Tyler Cowen, Niall Ferguson, Bruno S. Frey, Milton Friedman, Herb Greenberg, Greenspan, Michael Jensen, L.S. Karp, Charles Kindleberger, Krugman, Gregory Mankiw, Robert C. Merton, Nouriel Roubini, Kenneth Rogoff, Carmen Reinhart, David Rubenstein, Schumpeter, Anna Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Robert J. Shiller, Jeremy Siegel, Hans-Werner Sinn, George Soros, Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Volcker, Martin Wolf, Janet Yellen, Luigi Zingales, _________________________________________________________________________________RECOMMENDED SEARCH NAMES(click on names):
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LEADING ECONOMISTS DEBATE THE CRISIS:
BLOGROLL
ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS:ECONOMICS, LAW AND POLITICS:
- Argmax
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- Grasping Reality with both hands
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- Princeton University Press Blog
- RGE Monitor
- PSDBlog(Worldbank)
- The Knowledge Problem:
- The Mess That Greenspan Made
- Oekonomenstimme.org
- Ordnungspolitik.ch
- VOX
- World Economic Forum Weblog
_________________________________________________________________________________ECONOMIES:
STATISTICS SOURCES:
- Econometric Laboratory UC Berkeley
- Dataranking.com: Economic and social Data Ranking
- International Economic Growth Data Set (many useful statistics links, University of Bristol)
- Nationmaster (comprehensive country stat. data)
- US Dept. of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
- US Govt Business Statistics
- US Regional Economic Data
- EuroStat: comprehensive European Statistical Data
- Metrics 2.0: Business & Market Intelligence
- RBA: huge Number of Links to Statistical Sources
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- Ireland Business Facts (incl. economic Global Data)
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THINK TANKS:
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- Freilich: Liberal Swiss Weblog
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GLOBALIZATION:
- Carnegie Endowment: Globalization (Learning Tool)
- Dani Rodik (Harvard Prof. on Globalization)
- How to save globalization from its cheer leaders, Dani Rodrik (Harvard)
- Emory: The Globalization Website
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- OECD Economics Department
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- Worldbank: Globalization
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LINKS TO SELECTED WORKING PAPER SITES:
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