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Summary of business news and analysis

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11/19/13


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The 10 Myths of Entrepreneurship (video Uni St. Gall)

Permalink 06:50:01 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)

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Categories: Entrepreneurship/Leadership/Innovation

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Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Mindset of Entrepreneurs

Stoff, Ingo and Braun, Reiner, The Cost of Private Equity (November 15, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2354985

Abstract:

"Private equity (PE) has developed into a well-established asset class with strong growth in capital commitments over the last decades. Consequently, fund returns have decreased over time and investors have become more cost conscious. Based on a unique data set of 358 PE buyout funds with vintage years between 1983 and 2007, we analyze whether the maturing PE asset class has become less costly over time. We define costs as the difference between gross and net returns (return spread) and provide a spread benchmark useful for investors to evaluate a fund’s costliness. Next, we show that, in line with our expectations, return spreads have decreased over time. However, when we control for falling gross returns causing lower performance-based fees, surprisingly, the cost of PE investing has increased. We relate the higher costs to increased levels of dry powder due to swelling capital flows into the industry. We conclude that the PE industry is a victim of its own success, suggesting that investors in the asset class should consider a more anti-cyclical investment approach."


Keywords: Private Equity, Fund Return

11/18/13


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Developments in the mutual funds industry,

Permalink 11:34:28 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 12 words   English (US)

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Categories: Investment

Keywords: Investment Strategy, ETF, Passive Index Funds, Actively Managed Fund, Mutual Funds


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Where does success come from?

Permalink 06:43:54 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 8 words   English (US)

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Categories: Research


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Renewed deflationary pressure in Europe?

Permalink 06:38:33 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 51 words   English (US)

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Categories: Economics Europe

Sober Look: Deflationary risks rising in the Eurozone; time for LTRO redux? Nov. 15, 2013

The euro area may be facing renewed deflationary pressures. Inflation measures are now near multi-year lows and falling. see some interesting charts on CPI, French employment, monetary base etc. on Sober Look

Keywords: Europe, European Crisis, European Recovery

11/16/13

Permalink 04:08:53 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 0 words   English (US)
Categories: Humor

11/13/13

Former Morgan Stanley managing director and manager of the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion agency mortgage-backed security purchase program, Andrew Huszar, about the backdoor bailout of Wall Street banks:

Wall Street Journal: Andrew Huszar: Confessions of a Quantitative Easer; We went on a bond-buying spree that was supposed to help Main Street. Instead, it was a feast for Wall Street, Nov. 11, 2013

I can only say: I'm sorry, America. As a former Federal Reserve official, I was responsible for executing the centerpiece program of the Fed's first plunge into the bond-buying experiment known as quantitative easing. The central bank continues to spin QE as a tool for helping Main Street. But I've come to recognize the program for what it really is: the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time. read more in the Wall Street Journal

Keywords: Fed, Quantitative Easing, Bank Bail Outs, Bank Recapitalizations, Main Street, Wall Street

http://www.linkedin.com/pub/andrew-huszar/3/3a5/b50

11/12/13

Permalink 07:52:44 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 190 words   English (US)
Categories: Valuation, Statistics, Performance Measurement

Why it is important to look with methodology and persistence to look for the best tier or best quartile private equity funds:

Barrons: Average Private-Equity Investor Merely Breaks Even, Study Claims, Nov. 11, 2013

Private-equity investors often enjoy superior returns. But what happens when you account for factors like illiquidity and high fees — both of which make it riskier to invest?

Three academics argue in a new National Bureau of Economic Research paper private equity is basically a wash for the average investor, once you price in the various risks — such as being locked in for years, or not being able to rebalance the portfolio as the years go by

“On average, LPs may just break even, net of management fees, carry, risk, and costs of illiquidity,” write Morten Sorensen of Columbia University, Jinqiang Yang of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and Neng Wang of Columbia Business School. “LP” is limited partner, which is the lingo for the high net-worth individuals and institutions who invest in private equity.

Here’s a look at the intuition:
read the whole article in Barrons

Keywords: Private Equity, Private Equity Fund, Private Equity Performance

11/11/13

Permalink 06:49:58 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 47 words   English (US)
Categories: Wisdom, Analysts, Investment, Valuation

Interesting article and charts by Wesley R. Gray, PhD, on the ratio of GDP growth/Corporate Profits, which seems to be of quite importance to investors such as Warren Buffett:

Turnkey Analyst: Buffet's Market Timing Signal: Expensive, Nov. 5, 2013

Keywords: Market Timing, Investor Strategy, GDP Growth to Corporate Profits

11/09/13

Permalink 10:17:37 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 159 words   English (US)
Categories: Performance Measurement, Regulation

McCahery, Joseph A. and Vermeulen, Erik P. M., Recasting Private Equity Funds after the Financial Crisis: The End of 'Two and Twenty' and the Emergence of Co-Investment and Separate Account Arrangements (November 8, 2013). Lex Research Topics in Corporate Law & Economics Working Paper No. 2013-2. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2351816

Abstract:

"This article examines the post-financial crisis trends in the private equity industry. Although most research has followed the pre-crisis trends, we show that investors are demanding the inclusion of more investor-favorable compensation terms in limited partnership agreements. Our findings suggest that these new terms not only provide the investors with more favorable management fee and profit distribution arrangements, but also give them more control over the fund’s investment decisions. Importantly, the new pattern also reveals the inclusion of more straightforward co-investment rights. Besides the contractual ‘improvements’, we observe that investors want to see more skin in the game from the managers/general partners."

Keywords: AIFMD, Carried Interest, Co-Investment Rights, Private Equity Fees

Permalink 07:22:59 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 173 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Chicago Fed Letter: Bitcoin: A primer by François R. Velde, senior economist

This article reviews the mechanics of the Bitcoin currency and offers some thoughts on its characteristics. read the article on the Chicago Fed homepage

Excerpt from the authors conclusion:

..."Some of bitcoin’s features make it less convenient than existing currencies and payment systems, particularly for those who have no strong desire to avoid them in the first place. Nor does it truly embody what Hayek and others in the “Austrian School of Economics” proposed. Should bitcoin become widely accepted, it is unlikely that it will remain free of government intervention, if only because the governance of the bitcoin code and network is opaque and vulnerable. That said, it represents a remarkable conceptual and technical achievement, which may well be used by existing financial institutions (which could issue their own bitcoins) or even by governments themselves."

Keywords: Bitcoin, Private Currency, Alternative to Money Monopoly of Government

Related:

Pando Daily: Why the case for Bitcoin at $340 is not that crazy after all, Nov. 8, 2013

11/08/13

Permalink 07:32:56 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 24 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

A lot of serious stuff explained in a convincing, funny way. Some explanations could certainly be questioned.

Keywords: Europe, European Crisis, ECB Monetary Policy

Permalink 07:14:03 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Wealth, Middle Class, Liberalization

11/05/13

Permalink 10:36:32 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 375 words   English (US)
Categories: Academic, Banks/Investment Banks

Admati, Anat R. and DeMarzo, Peter M. and Hellwig, Martin F. and Pfleiderer, Paul C., Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Socially Expensive (October 22, 2013). Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University Working Paper No. 161. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2349739

Abstract:

"We examine the pervasive view that "equity is expensive," which leads to claims that high capital requirements are costly for society and would affect credit markets adversely. We find that arguments made to support this view are fallacious, irrelevant to the policy debate by confusing private and social costs, or very weak. For example, the return on equity contains a risk premium that must go down if banks have more equity. It is thus incorrect to assume that the required return on equity remains fixed as capital requirements increase. It is also incorrect to translate higher taxes paid by banks to a social cost. Policies that subsidize debt and indirectly penalize equity through taxes and implicit guarantees are distortive. And while debt’s informational insensitivity may provide valuable liquidity, increased capital (and reduced leverage) can enhance this benefit. Finally, suggestions that high leverage serves a necessary disciplining role are based on inadequate theory lacking empirical support.

We conclude that bank equity is not socially expensive, and that high leverage at the levels allowed, for example, by the Basel III agreement is not necessary for banks to perform all their socially valuable functions and likely makes banking inefficient. Better capitalized banks suffer fewer distortions in lending decisions and would perform better. The fact that banks choose high leverage does not imply that this is socially optimal. Except for government subsidies and viewed from an ex ante perspective, high leverage may not even be privately optimal for banks.

Setting equity requirements significantly higher than the levels currently proposed would entail large social benefits and minimal, if any, social costs. Approaches based on equity dominate alternatives, including contingent capital. To achieve better capitalization quickly and efficiently and prevent disruption to lending, regulators must actively control equity payouts and issuance. If remaining challenges are addressed, capital regulation can be a powerful tool for enhancing the role of banks in the economy."


Keywords: Financial Institutions, Capital Structure, "Too Big To Fail"

10/28/13

Permalink 03:26:05 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 10 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

Good Chart.

Source: Cumberland Advisors

Keywords: European Bonds, Euro Crisis

10/26/13

Permalink 09:08:15 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 23 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps, author of the book "Mass Flourishing - How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change"

Keywords: Wealth, Growth, Mass Flourishing

10/24/13

Permalink 06:57:26 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 4 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Economy, Economic Basics

10/12/13

Permalink 08:25:08 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 122 words   English (US)
Categories: Entrepreneurship/Leadership/Innovation

Ross Levine, Yona Rubinstein, Smart and Illicit: Who Becomes an Entrepreneur and Does it Pay? NBER Working Paper No. 19276, August 2013

"We disaggregate the self-employed into incorporated and unincorporated to distinguish between “entrepreneurs” and other business owners. The incorporated self-employed have a distinct combination of cognitive, noncognitive, and family traits. Besides coming from higher-income families with better-educated mothers, the incorporated—as teenagers—scored higher on learning aptitude tests, had greater self-esteem, and engaged in more aggressive, illicit, risk-taking activities. The combination of “smarts” and “aggressive/illicit/risk-taking” tendencies as a youth accounts for both entry into entrepreneurship and the comparative earnings of entrepreneurs. In contrast to a large literature, we also find that entrepreneurs earn much more per hour than their salaried counterparts."

Keywords: Self-Employed, Entrepreneurs, Earnings

10/07/13

Permalink 01:32:29 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 172 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

Wall Street Journal: Niall Ferguson: The Shutdown Is a Sideshow. Debt Is the Threat, Oct. 4, 2013

More realistic CBO assumptions show that it is very difficult to get out of the debt trap:

....A very striking feature of the latest CBO report is how much worse it is than last year's. A year ago, the CBO's extended baseline series for the federal debt in public hands projected a figure of 52% of GDP by 2038. That figure has very nearly doubled to 100%. A year ago the debt was supposed to glide down to zero by the 2070s. This year's long-run projection for 2076 is above 200%. In this devastating reassessment, a crucial role is played here by the more realistic growth assumptions used this year.....

Most CBO scenarios do not show how debt can be reduced:

...Only in three of 13 scenarios?two of which imagine politically highly unlikely spending cuts or tax hikes?does the debt shrink from its current level of 73% of GDP...

read the whole article in theWall Street Journal

Keywords: US Government Shut Down, US Debt

09/25/13

Permalink 09:30:53 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 24 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Productivity, Sectoral Shifts, and Labor Force Dynamics

Panel1 from NBER on Vimeo.

see more videos by clicking here

Keywords: Labor Market, Crisis Effects, Recovery

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