Overblown story No. 1: Student loans now exceed credit card loans
Overblown story No. 2: The recovery is being driven by part-time jobs
Overblown story No. 3: The pension crisis
Keywords: Recovery, Job Creation, Pension Obligation, Student Loans
Creative Destroyer 1: E-Cigarettes
Creative destroyer 2: Cancer Immunotherapy
Creative Destroyer 3: LEDs
Creative Destroyer 4: Alternative Capital In The Reinsurance Market
Creative Destroyer 6: Software-Defined Networking
Creative Destroyer 5: Natural Gas Engines
Creative Destroyer 7: 3D Printing
Creative Destroyer 8: Big Data
Keywords: Creative Destruction, Innovation
We believe that some more very powerful destroyers could be imaginable. What about robotics in agricultural base work or companies like Apple and Google going into banking?
Keywords: Tesla, Electric Car
Harris, Robert S., Jenkinson, Tim, Kaplan, Steven N. and Stucke, Rüdiger, Has Persistence Persisted in Private Equity? Evidence from Buyout and Venture Capital Funds (April 1, 2013). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2304808
"The conventional wisdom for investors in private equity funds is to invest in partnerships that have performed well in the past, so-called top quartile funds. This conventional wisdom is based on the belief that performance in private equity persists across funds for the same partnership. We present new evidence on the persistence of U.S. private equity (buyout and venture capital) funds using a new research-quality dataset from Burgiss, sourced from over 200 institutional investors. Using detailed cash-flow data for funds, we study the persistence of buyout and venture capital fund performance of the same general partners across different funds. We pay particular attention to persistence pre- and post-2000. Previous research, studying largely pre-2000 data, has found strong persistence for both buyout and venture capital firms.
We confirm the previous findings on persistence in pre-2000 funds. There is significant persistence for buyout funds and, particularly for venture funds.
Post-2000, we find mixed evidence of persistence in buyout funds. When funds are sorted by the quartile of performance of their previous funds, performance of the current fund is statistically indistinguishable regardless of quartile. Returns for partnerships in all previous fund quartiles, including the bottom, exceed those of public markets as measured by the S&P 500. At the same time, however, regression estimates do find that current fund performance is significantly related to previous fund performance.Post-2000, we find that performance in venture capital funds remains as statistically and economically persistent as pre-2000. Partnerships whose previous funds are below the median for their vintage year subsequently tend to be below median and have returns below those of the public markets (S&P 500). Partnerships in the top two quartiles tend to stay above the median and their returns exceed those of the public markets."
Keywords: Private Equity, Venture Capital
Keywords: Media, Newspaper, Print Media, Online Media, Advertising
Read more detailed analysis on the New York Fed homepage:
Keywords: Bonds, Bond Prices, Selloff Bonds
Jeff Bezos, not Amazon, is dropping $250 million in cash to purchase the venerable Washington Post. But it’s not only the paper that Bezos is picking up for his quarter billion. As part of the purchase, the Amazon founder will also become owner of a host of smaller local papers, the Washington Post website, and a printing outfit by the name of Comprint that the Post itself notes “publishes several military publications.”
That’s a slurry. In short, Bezos now owns a minor newspaper empire, crowned with the Washington Post itself.
But just how healthy are the assets that Bezos has purchased? Let’s take a trip through the numbers. Keep in mind that the Washington Post company is only so specific in its breakdown of revenue from its newspaper division. So, our looking glass is slightly dim. read more on Tech Crunch
Keywords: Washington Post, Jeff Bezos, Online Media, Print Media
Keywords: Yield, Stock Market, Bond Market
Have a look at the great charts on the blog "The Short Side of Long":
AAII survey readings came in at 45% bulls and 23% bears. Bullish readings fell by 3% while bearish readings rose by 1%. The AAII bull ratio (4 week average) currently stands at 68%, which indicates very high optimism amongst the retail investment community. According to my own data, this is usually a "sell signal" zone for this indicator. see much more analysis and great charts on "The Short Side of Long"
Keywords: Assets, Stock Market, Commodity Markets, Bond Market, Market Sentiment
Keywords: Smartphones, Samsung, Moto X
Keywords: Government Employment, Federal Administration
The 2007-2009 financial crisis was associated with a huge loss of economic output and financial wealth, psychological consequences and skill atrophy from extended unemployment, an increase in government intervention, and other significant costs. Assuming the financial crisis is to blame for these associated ills, an estimate of its cost is needed to weigh against the cost of policies intended to prevent similar episodes. We conservatively estimate that 40 to 90 percent of one years output ($6 trillion to $14 trillion, the equivalent of $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household) was foregone due to the 2007-2009 recession. We also provide several alternative measures of lost consumption, national trauma, and other negative consequences of the worst recession since the 1930s. This more comprehensive evaluation of factors suggests that what the U.S. gave up as a result of the crisis is likely greater than the value of one years output.
Keywords: Financial Crisis, Great Recession, Output Loss
Keywords: google, Smartphone, Moto X
In May, we began talking bullishly about European stocks and put a position on for select accounts. As Buffett said about his recent European stock buys, the news hadn't gotten better but the prices sure had.
The valuations were absurdly low relative to what investors are paying for the US and Japan. Price to earnings ratios - on both a trailing-12 months basis and cyclically adjusted over ten years - are substantially lower for Euro stocks than for their US counterparts. At the same time, dividend yields in Europe are significantly higher.
In addition, you'd have to leave earth to find a more hated asset class. Everyone's underweight Europe - they think it's the "conservative" thing to do while they chase the Russell 2000 at 20 times earnings. Meanwhile it's the largest economy on earth - 760 million people in 48 countries producing $16 trillion in GDP. read more on The Reformed Broker
Keywords: Europe, European Economy
Job Curtis, co-portfolio manager of the Henderson Global Equity Income Fund, provides his views on the improving economic background and describes the Fund's positioning both geographically and by sector.
Good illustrations and reflections on private equity in the latest IESE Alumni Magazine. There could in dead be a private equity revival ahead.
Keywords: Private Equity, Buy Outs, LBO
Zillow’s second quarter Real Estate Market Reports , released today, show home values increased 2.4% from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2013 to $161,100 (Figure 1). This quarter marks the largest annual gain since August 2006 and largest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2005. On an annual basis, the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose from June 2012 levels (Figure 2). Monthly appreciation remains strong with national home values growing by 0.9% from May. Not only did the pace of home value appreciation quicken in the second quarter, but the recovery also fully took hold nationwide. Markets in some areas of the Northeast, Midwest and Southeastern U.S., such as Atlanta, Chicago and St. Louis, that had previously been slow to turn the corner began to appreciate, which helped boost the overall national market. All of the top 30 largest metro areas covered by Zillow experienced annual appreciation in home values as of the end of the second quarter, and all have hit their bottom. read more on Zillow Real Estate Research
Keywords: US Real Estate Market, Case Shiller
None of the Internet giants have unionized employees, which has made Silicon Valley a favorite target for civil libertarians.
Earlier this month, after several prominent Bay Area technologists came out against the BART subway union strike, it provided a convenient excuse for haters to brand the tech community as greedy oligarchs. “There’s a reason why so many people are hating on the techies,” wrote Slate’s Andrew Leonard, after quoting one tech executive who wanted to automate BART employees out of existence — “Get ‘em back to work, pay them whatever they want, and then figure out how to automate their jobs so this doesn’t happen again.”
There’s a very good reason why unions have never had a presence in Silicon Valley: they aren’t fans of technology. Labor unions have aggressively fought Uber and Lyft, which threaten taxi drivers with increased competition. They’ve effectively paralyzed a multi-billion-dollar sharing economy industry from spreading around the country. read more on TechCrunch
Keywords: Technology, Productivity, Technological Progress, Labor Unions
This, in combination of what google already has, could be a game changer:
"Once your Chromecast is set up, you can use your phone, tablet or laptop to browse and cast content to your TV, play and pause, control the volume, and more. But unlike other streaming solutions, you can still multitask—send emails or surf the web—while enjoying what’s on the TV screen.
It works across platforms—Android tablets and smartphones, iPhones, iPads, Chrome for Mac and Windows (more to come), so your personal device is also now your remote control. In addition to apps like Netflix, you can use Chromecast to bring a broad range of content available on the web to your big screen, thanks to a new feature in the Chrome browser that allows you to project any browser tab to your TV. From sharing your family photos to enjoying a video clip from your favorite news site, it’s as simple as pressing a button."
Keywords: Google Chromecast, Google
Great article by trueventures on the "new industrialization":
...."This is a tectonic shift that is going to drive the next wave of industrialization — one that is more nimble, adaptable and rapidly evolving. One that is as much based in software as it is in assembly lines. The past 150 years were about the economics of labor and mass production. Now, information flow, data, and analytic platforms are the new tools augmenting the lathes, pneumatic hammers, and assembly lines of yesteryear.".. read more on trueventures
.."Consumers now expect a “smartphone-like experience in the car,” Golvin said. They are used to rapid cycles of innovation, and they have a greater range of transportation alternatives through companies like Zipcar and Getaround. Studies have shown that people are now driving less and buying fewer cars, and car makers, which are already facing significant challenges, need to respond accordingly if they want to remain competitive. According to Golvin, the greatest potential to create new revenue is with data brokerage and analysis and the ability to turn data collected by vehicles into actionable information"...
Keywords: Car Industry, Connected Car
"According to Nielsen’s quarterly Global AdView Pulse report, the first quarter of 2013 held few surprises for media sectors—continuing trends established in recent years. Television remained the dominant media type in terms of advertising investments (with 59% media share and 3.5% global growth), and it appears that TV will maintain this position at least for the short term. TV advertising, however, was not immune to the economic problems in Europe in Q1, leading to a 2.9 percent decrease in this region.
Decreases in print advertising continued slowly, as both spending in magazines and newspapers both declined in the first quarter (-2.8% and -4.7%, respectively). Newspaper ad spend decreased in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, while magazine ad spending decreased in Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and Middle East & Africa, showing that print advertising is declining around the globe.
The two media types combined, however, still hold nearly a 30 percent media share, validating that print is still a power player in the media mix for marketers.
Display Internet advertising, though measured in a smaller subset of countries, grew a significant 26.3 percent for the first quarter. Display internet ad growth was particularly impressive in the Asia-Pacific (33.2%) and Latin America (48.2%). Internet even bucked the trend in Europe, boasting growth of 10.4 percent." read more on Nielsen
Facebook captured growth opportunities in mobile advertising:
Keywords: Advertising, Print, Television, Online Media, Internet
Econ Analysis: Selected contributions to economics: articles, papers, podcasts, blogs (constantly updated)__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Recommended search terms (click on terms):
Analysts, Analyst Recommendation, Animal Spirits, Austerity, Bail out, Behavioral Finance, Bubble, Buyout, Carried Interest Taxation, Central Banks, CEO, Compensation, Contagion, Corporate Governance, Creative Destruction, Crisis, Currency War, Decoupling, Deflation, Depression, Economic Outlook, Economic Stimulus, Entrepreneur, Exchange Rates, Fiscal Policy, Forecast, Hedge Fund, Herding, Inflation, Information Cascades, LBO, Innovation Minsky Cycle, Monetary Policy, Moral Hazard, Mortgage, Nationalization, Protectionism, Recession, Regulation, Shareholder Activism, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Subprime, Taxes, Tobin Tax, Venture Capital, Walker Report, Yield Curve,
Finance and Real Estate:
Biofuel, Carbon, Cleantech, Climate Change, CO2, Energy, Food Crisis, Food Prices, Externalities, Gold, Kuznets Curve, Solar, Oil, ______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Natural Resources and Food:
Latest articles of selected institutions:
Imported information which does not show the source will be removed.
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