We recently sat down with world-renowned money manager Felix Zulauf to get his view on global markets. Felix discusses the European debt crisis, the rebound in Chinese equities, the recent Japanese election and its impact on their markets, the U.S. markets in light of our fiscal issues, and much more. read more on Euromarketsite
Keywords: Felix Zulauf, Euro, Global Economy, China
Keywords: Megatrends, Re-Balancing, Economic Development
"This paper studies the effect of business partners on the commercialization of invention based ventures, and it assesses the relative importance of partners’ human and social capital on commercialization outcomes. Projects run by partnerships were five times more likely to reach commercialization, and they had mean revenues approximately ten times greater than projects run by solo-entrepreneurs. These gross differences may be due both to business partners’ value added and to selection. After controlling for selection effects and observed/unobserved heterogeneity, our smallest estimate of partner value added approximately doubles the probability of commercialization and increases expected revenues by 29% at the sample mean."
Keywords: Inventions, Entrepreneurial Success Rates, Partnerships
Important academic paper to "calibrate" judgement related to corporate decision making:
Ben-David, Itzhak, Graham, John R. and Harvey, Campbell R., Managerial Miscalibration (August 8, 2012). Charles A. Dice Center Working Paper No. 2010-12; Fisher College of Business Working Paper No. 2010-03-012; AFA 2007 Chicago Meetings Paper . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1640552 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1640552
"We test whether top financial executives are miscalibrated using a unique 10-year panel that includes over 13,300 probability distributions of expected stock market returns. We find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives’ 80% confidence intervals only 36% of the time. We show that the lower bound of the forecast confidence interval is lower during times of high market uncertainty; however, ex-post miscalibration is worst during these episodes. We also find that executives who are miscalibrated about the stock market show similar miscalibration regarding their own firms’ prospects. Finally, firms with miscalibrated executives appear to follow more aggressive corporate policies: investing more and using more debt financing."
Keywords: Overconfidence, Behavioral Biases, Behavioral Corporate Finance
Keywords: US Economy, Eurozone Economy, S&P, Euro Stoxx
Conrad, Christian and Zumbach, Klaus Ulrich, The Effect of Political Communication on European Financial Markets During the Sovereign Debt Crisis (December 12, 2012). University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper No. 536. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2188358
"We quantify all statements by major European politicians reported by Reuters during the August 2011 to December 2011 period and show that political communication significantly affects European stock and bond markets as well as the EURUSD exchange rate. Communication with respect to Italy induces the strongest market reactions. Financial markets consider the German bond market a safe haven."
Keywords: Political Statements, Capital Markets, High-Frequency Response
Source: Intel Free Press
Keywords: Technology, China
Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of the index investing classic “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” has a new gig that’s worth taking measure of. The legend of passive investing is now chief investment advisor of Wealthfront, a Silicon Valley-based financial advisory firm that is serving up a dirt-cheap online approach to money management. read more on IndexUniverse
Keywords: Indices, Index, Index Investing, Online Money Management
Highly relevant article of Megan McArdle on the demographic shift in the US - a problem which also other Western civilizations face:
Birthrates are falling. Will the economy follow
....... "Start with a simple equation: economic growth equals the growth in the workforce plus the growth in the productivity of that workforce. If the workforce shrinks, then productivity growth needs to be higher, in order to compensate; otherwise your economy shrinks. In theory, we can compensate for the coming demographic shift with higher productivity. A shrinking population, after all, means a higher capital to worker ratio.
But this doesn't quite work, because our population will not simply get smaller; it will also get older. If everyone was going to suddenly die at 45, we might be able to get the requisite productivity boost. But as the population ages, it will change dramatically, becoming less innovative, more risk averse, less physically capable. Just as we desperately need productivity to speed up, it is probably going to slow down.".... Source: Excerpt of Megan McArdle article
Keywords: Population, Western Economies, Economic Growth, Demographics
The answer seems to be clearly No, as a new study shows:
Bargeron, Leonce, Schlingemann, Frederik P., Zutter, Chad J. and Stulz, Rene M., Does Target CEO Retention in Acquisitions Involving Private Equity Acquirers Harm Target Shareholders? (December 5, 2012). Charles A. Dice Center Working Paper No. 2012-026. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2185574
"While there is widespread concern that target CEO retention by the acquirer harms target shareholders when the acquirer is a private equity firm, CEO retention can also be valuable to private equity acquirers, and hence potentially benefit shareholders. We find that CEO retention does not harm target shareholders when the acquirer is a private equity firm. In fact, we show that, in acquisitions by private equity firms, better performing CEOs are more likely to be retained and target shareholders gain an additional 10% to 23% of pre-acquisition firm value when the CEO is retained compared to when the CEO is not retained. In contrast, shareholders of targets acquired by operating companies do not benefit from CEO retention. Finally, we find no evidence that the target’s value is artificially depressed ahead of a private equity acquisition where the CEO is retained."
Keywords: Private Equity, CEO Retention, Acquisition Premium
Investment News of Bloomberg (Videos) and Reuters
Bloomberg Television on Youtube
Reuters on Global Investing
Selected Investment Blogs
The Big Picture
Economix (New York Times)
Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
The Capital Spectator
The Reformed Broker
25iq Thoughts on Investing and Investor's Psychology
Keywords: US Economy, Regulation, Fiscal Uncertainty
Study: At most a third of us show a consistent approach to financial risk; Empirically rich new study finds most people alter their risk-management approach depending on the type of financial decision, by Peter Dizikes, MIT News Office
Take a moment to consider some of the financial choices you’ve made in recent years. Do you have a consistent approach to your money, either by playing it safe or having a willingness to take risks? Or do you not have a set philosophy, and instead make your financial decisions independently of each other? read more on MIT News
Keywords: Risk Behavior, Financial Decision
Randy Komisar, Partner at Kleiner Perkins, explains that market forces and current opportunities play a big role in whether or not an entrepreneur succeeds.
Keywords: Skills of Entrepreneurs, Taking Advantage of Opportunities
Year end is the time for (not often very competent) stock market predictions.
It could be wise to challenge such predictions with more fundamental considerations of proven cracks in the field of value investing.
Such as Warren Buffett:
This "value investing checklist" is also quite useful.
Keywords: Value Investing, Fundamental Company Value
Opp, Christian C., Learning, Active Investors, and the Returns of Financially Distressed Firms (June 14, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2181441 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2181441
"I develop a dynamic asset pricing model to analyze expected returns of financially distressed firms in the presence of learning about firm fundamentals and endogenous information acquisition by active investors that acquire large stakes in distressed firms via private investments in public equity. The model reveals that learning and information acquisition critically affect risk exposures close to default and can rationalize low and even negative expected equity returns for firms with high default risk. Similar to Schumpeter's (1934) argument that recessions have a positive, cleansing effect on the economy, the model reveals that equity holders may benefit from the increased speed of learning about insolvent firms in downturns, which increases the value of their abandonment option in these times. Equity holders' option value is further enhanced by the ability to partially free-ride on active investors' acquisition of information on firm fundamentals. Both information channels are shown to affect equity betas, and may account for striking, momentum-type dynamics in risk premia." Source: SSRN
Keywords: Learning, Financial Distress
Keywords: Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship
Econ Analysis: Selected contributions to economics: articles, papers, podcasts, blogs (constantly updated)__________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Analysts, Analyst Recommendation, Animal Spirits, Austerity, Bail out, Behavioral Finance, Bubble, Buyout, Carried Interest Taxation, Central Banks, CEO, Compensation, Contagion, Corporate Governance, Creative Destruction, Crisis, Currency War, Decoupling, Deflation, Depression, Economic Outlook, Economic Stimulus, Entrepreneur, Exchange Rates, Fiscal Policy, Forecast, Hedge Fund, Herding, Inflation, Information Cascades, LBO, Innovation Minsky Cycle, Monetary Policy, Moral Hazard, Mortgage, Nationalization, Protectionism, Recession, Regulation, Shareholder Activism, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Subprime, Taxes, Tobin Tax, Venture Capital, Walker Report, Yield Curve,
Finance and Real Estate:
Biofuel, Carbon, Cleantech, Climate Change, CO2, Energy, Food Crisis, Food Prices, Externalities, Gold, Kuznets Curve, Solar, Oil, ______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Natural Resources and Food:
Latest articles of selected institutions:
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