Keyword(s): forecast
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12/22/12
Important academic paper to "calibrate" judgement related to corporate decision making:
Ben-David, Itzhak, Graham, John R. and Harvey, Campbell R., Managerial Miscalibration (August 8, 2012). Charles A. Dice Center Working Paper No. 2010-12; Fisher Co… more »
11/16/12
08:11:21 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com 
, 82 words 
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe
Source: Sober Look more »
10/18/12
Ippei Fujiwara, Hibiki Ichiue, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Yosuke Shigemi, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2012
Abstract:
"We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviora… more »
04/26/12
CNBC: Fed Raises Economic Outlook, Leans Toward 2014 Hike, April 25, 2012
The Federal Reserve has boosted its outlook for U.S. economic growth this year and is slightly more optimistic about the unemployment rate, reflecting improvements in recent mon… more »
01/19/12
Eye on the Markt: JP Morgan, Jan. 11, 2012 more »
01/07/12
06:38:10 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 32 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe, Economics Global, Economics Asia
Interesting analyses and charts. We are not certain, whether we can already talk of a "post stimulus economy":
Outlook on the Market, JP Morgan Private Bank, Jan. 1, 2012
Keywords: Market Outlook 2012, Economic Forecasts more »
01/06/12
Demographic planning mistakes in China? Will changing government policies soon create a tremendous boom in the Chinese market for diapers.....?
Bloomberg: China No Country for Old Men as Government Battles ‘Demographic Tsunami’, Jan. 4, 2012
The la… more »
01/01/12
11:20:07 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 117 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe, Economics Global
The New York Times has a good article about forecast biases:NYT: 3 Experts Weigh In On 2012, by James Stewart, Dec. 30, 2011Predictions for the economy and markets for 2012 have been bleak, and 2011 was much worse than expected. There may not be… more »
12/31/11
03:32:56 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 65 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
As always at year end I am reading through the "cacophony" of forecasts for the next year.
Menzie Chinn has put together some "fantastical pseudo economics" for the past year:
Econbrowser: The Year in Review: Fantastical Pseudo Economics, Dec. 29,… more »
12/10/11
08:51:27 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 109 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe, Economics Global
a further "muddling through" is the more likely option:
Project Syndicate: Disaster Can Wait, Barry Eichengreen, Dec. 9, 2011
Nowadays there is no shortage of pundits, economic or otherwise, warning of impending disaster. If right, they are hailed… more »
10/25/11
I "thought that modern central banking" means mainly monetary expansion. Good to hear that inflation targeting has obviously been considered "modern" until recently. The perception was definitely a different one...
Morgan Stanley: Is Modern Central Ba… more »
10/17/11
07:17:25 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 123 words
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global
Yahoo Finance: Why The Economy Looks Like Expansion, Feels Like Recession, Oct. 14, 2011
"The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment, released Friday morning, showed consumer confidence fell and that consumers' expectatio… more »
10/16/11
In Beijing, the International Monetary Fund presented an interim assessment of the economy, updated from forecasts made three months ago before the current crisis.
Oct. 14, 2011
Keywords: Chinese Economy, Chinese Exports more »
10/11/11
Find following a link to an article of Jeff Sommer in The New York Times. Jeff writes about the relativity of forecasts:.."economic forecasting is an act of sheer hubris. Which, of course, only incites people to do it." ..."The stock market off… more »
10/04/11
September 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast View more presentations from Economist Intelligence Unit
Keywords: Global Economic Forecast, Economist Intelligence Unit more »
10/03/11
We just can repeat our "forecast" that this won't work without a major debt restructuring, which should be implemented decisively this autumn. Politicians who claim that Greece will get out of the financial mess without a major restructuring of the debt… more »
10/01/11
Switzerland will elect its parliament this October. A major subject of the election campaigns of the various parties is the Swiss economy. Some politicians currently talk of tremendously difficult times ahead for the economy. Even though many companies a… more »
Buttonwood Notebook has a post about why stock market recommendations by journalists should not be taken too serious:Buttonwood Notebook blog (Economist): Markets? Dontcha hate 'em? Sept. 28, 2011Buttonwood writes:"The point is not just that… more »
09/29/11
08:59:58 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com , 150 words
Categories: Corporate Governance, Investment
Great paper about the relationship between consistency of hedge fund financial information disclosures and hedge fund performance:
Patton, Andrew J., Ramadorai, Tarun and Streatfield, Michael, The Reliability of Voluntary Disclosures: Evidence from He… more »
09/22/11
10:17:56 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 299 words
Categories: Valuation, Performance Measurement, Market Characteristics
New paper about cyclicality and performance in private equity. Researchers find evidence for a positive correlation between private equity net cash flows and public equity valuations.
Robinson, David T. and Sensoy, Berk A., Cyclicality, Performance M… more »
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