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Economics

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Pages: << 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ... 161 >>

03/08/12


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US CEOs on how to create a positive investment climate

Permalink 06:58:26 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 104 words   English (US)

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Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

03/07/12

Permalink 07:09:15 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 46 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

Great analysis on Ritholtz, showing the correlation of consumer confidence to various parameters such as employment conditions, confidence to jobs and the stock market. Consumer confidence shows the highest correlations to stock markets.

click on graph to go to Ritholz' post.

Keywords: Economy, Unemployment, Stock Market

03/03/12

03/01/12

Permalink 07:44:12 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 14 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Dr. Steve Horwitz explains the cause and costs of inflation.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Inflation

02/29/12

Permalink 06:32:29 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 25 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Ritholtz points to great analyses of Bloomberg and NY Fed:

Ritholtz: Household Deleveraging Slows Recovery, Feb. 29, 2012

Keywords: Household Debt, Deleveraging, Consumer Spending, Capex, Job Growth

02/28/12

SF Fed: U.S. and Euro-Area Monetary Policy by Regions, Feb. 2012

Even in areas that have a common currency, economic conditions can vary greatly from one region to another. So a single uniform monetary policy may not be appropriate. For example, a simple monetary policy rule at times recommends different interest rates for different regions of the United States. Among euro-area countries, such a rule typically recommends an even greater divergence in interest rates, partly due to lower labor mobility, and less use of fiscal transfers to help smooth shocks. read more on the SFFed Homepage

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Differences, Labor Mobility

Keywords: BRIC Economies, Emerging Economies

02/24/12

Permalink 08:02:16 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 4 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Bureaucracy, Centralization, Federalism

02/21/12

Permalink 08:30:28 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 81 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Council of Economic Advisers: 2012 Economic Report of the President, Feb. 2012

Here is an interesting graph from the report. One could expect that the "blue curve" has a lot of upward potential once trust is back in the economy. This not only depends on the US but particularly on potential positive developments in the Euro area. Looking at cash levels hoarded, the rebound potential should be very substantial.

Source: 2012 Economic Report of the President, Feb. 2012

Keywords: US Economy, 2012 Economic Report, US Recovery

02/18/12

Permalink 02:47:25 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 26 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Interview with J. Frankel about the heavily discussed issue of economic stimulus during crises and business cycles:

Keywords: Economic Stimulus, GDP Growth

Jeffrey Frankel on Wikipedia

Permalink 08:43:16 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 3 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Government, Subsidies

02/16/12

Permalink 08:58:40 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 191 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Yang Jiao and Yi Wen, Capital, Finance, and Trade Collapse, St. Louis Fed, Feb. 2012

"This paper proposes a model of international trade with capital accumulation and financial intermediation. This is achieved by embedding the Melitz (2003) model into an incomplete-markets neoclassical framework with an endogenous credit market. The model preserves the analytical tractability of the original Melitz model despite non-trivial distribution of firms’ net worth and capital stocks. We use the model to examine the differential effects of financial and non-financial shocks on aggregate output and international trade flows. The model predicts that trade volume declines far more sharply and significantly than that of output (with an elasticity larger than 3) under financial shocks than under non-financial shocks. The prediction is consistent with the stylized fact that most countries that experienced major financial crises had significantly larger and sharper contraction in exports than aggregate output (as is also true during the recent financial crisis). In the long run, however, a deeper financial market is a great source of "comparative advantage"— it raises not only the level of aggregate productivity but also the ratio of trade volume to domestic output."

Keywords: Financial Crisis, Output

02/15/12

Permalink 07:12:18 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 174 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe, Economics Global

Cumberland Advisors posted a good article on the current European Crisis and credit spreads. They show that workouts do not have to cause financial collapse but could create new positive forces once executed properly:

"Workouts, however, do not cause total collapse; in fact, they bring out strength. Ask the Scandinavian countries that avoided this financial crisis, having learned from their previous one. Ask Singapore, which has imposed governance standards. If we had Singapore law applied in the US, many in Congress and on Wall Street would be in jail for many years to come.

The biggest threat to financial-market pricing comes from periods of uncertainty, the sequence of ambiguous and conflicting views that alter investor perceptions. Uncertainty is the enemy of market pricing. Once you achieve clarity, markets adjust quickly to the new reality and move on. This will hold true in every city, county, and country. And it will apply to every banking system in the world."
Source: Cumberland Advisors

Cumberland Advisors: Greece - Europe - Credit Spreads Worldwide - Stocks, Feb. 11, 2012

Keywords: Europe, Credit Spreads

02/13/12

Permalink 09:17:18 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 17 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

02/12/12

Permalink 08:30:23 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 238 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

as shown in a new paper by Gulati (Duke) and Zettelmeyer (EBRD):

Gulati, G. Mitu and Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, Engineering an Orderly Greek Debt Restructuring (January 29, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1993037 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1993037

The abstract is here:

"For some months now, discussions over how Greece will restructure its debt have been constrained by the requirement that the deal be “voluntary” – implying that Greece would continue debt service to any creditors that choose retain their old bonds rather than tender them in an exchange offer. In light of Greece’s deep solvency problems and lack of agreement with its creditors so far, the notion of a voluntary debt exchange is increasingly looking like a mirage. In this essay, we describe and compare three alternative approaches that would achieve an orderly restructuring but avoid an outright default: (1) “retrofitting” and using a collective action clause (CAC) that would allow the vast majority of outstanding Greek government bonds to be restructured with the consent of a supermajority of creditors; (2) combining the use of a CAC with an exit exchange, in which consenting bondholders would receive a new English-law bond with standard creditor protections and lower face value; (3) an exit exchange in which a CAC would only be used if participation falls below a specified threshold. All three exchanges are involuntary in the sense that creditors that dissent or hold out are not repaid in full."

Keywords: Greece, Greek Debt Restructuring Scenarios, European Debt Crisis

Permalink 08:04:29 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 96 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

James Dorn explains why low interest rates over a longer period could distort asset markets. Good article.

"Manipulating interest rates via central bank policy distorts the structure of asset prices and penalizes savers. Low nominal interest rates, even at low rates of inflation, can mean negative real rates. Pension plans are also harmed as promised benefits cannot be fulfilled."
Source: James Dorn

read the article here:

Investor's Business Daily: Fed Low Interest Rate Policy Distorts The Economy, by James A. Dorn, Feb. 10, 2012

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Interest Rates

Related:

Mises.org: From Loose Money to Fettered People, Feb. 6, 2012

02/05/12

Permalink 03:58:21 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 40 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

C.D. Romer does not think that manufacturing needs special treatment. She would prefer educating more people for jobs in sectors where they are needed or to invest in infrastructure:

NYT: Do Manufacturers Need Special Treatment? Feb. 4, 2012

Keywords: US Economy, Manufacturing

Permalink 09:24:30 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 77 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe, Economics Global

Voxeu: Sovereign ratings when default can come explicitly or via inflation, by Charles A.E. Goodhart, Feb. 2, 2012

Inflation in the UK is now more than double that of France, but only one country has had its credit rating downgraded. This column argues that government credit ratings should be aided by a second rating measuring the potential loss of real value, whether by inflation or default. read more on Vox

Keywords: Sovereign Bonds, Credit Ratings, Inflation Risk, Default Risk

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