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Pages: << 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 ... 161 >>

11/16/12


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about two bubbles and two central banks

Permalink 08:20:21 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)

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Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe

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Keywords: Monetary Policy, Fed, ECB

Permalink 08:11:21 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 82 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Europe

Source: Sober Look

"The US and Europe economic surprise indices have diverged dramatically recently. After the weakness in new orders during the summer, economists have lowered expectations for the US, but were since consistently surprised to the upside. In Europe the falling sovereign borrowing costs made some forecasters more sanguine about prospects for a recovery, which did not materialize. Instead the Eurozone saw consistent deterioration in the "core" economies." Source: Sober Look

Keywords: US Economy, European Economy, Economic Indices, Economic Surprise Index

11/09/12

Permalink 03:16:21 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 39 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

Things go into the right direction:

Source: Pictet

Labour costs have to adjust if you take a look at productivity differences among EU countries:

Labour productivity growth and wage growth in the EU

Keywords: EU Labour Costs, EU Productivity

11/07/12

Permalink 06:04:30 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 171 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

The Next President Is Lucky; Whoever wins the election will get to preside over a growing economy and look like a genius, Nov. 5, 2012

..."The key reason jobs will almost certainly grow at at least a tepid rate is monetary policy. Ellis Tallman and Saeed Zaman have shown in research for the Cleveland Federal Reserve bank that the kind of objective economic conditions that existed in 2009 would have justified a federal funds rate of minus 5 percent—if such a thing were possible. But it’s not possible for the Fed to set nominal interest rates below zero, and the Fed hasn’t been willing to try to raise its inflation target to reduce real interest rates. Consequently, with interest rates stuck at zero, we got exactly what you would expect in a country where the central bank sets rates five percentage points too high—soaring unemployment and a sluggish recovery."

Kewords: US Economy, Economic Growth, Monetary Policy

Countercyclical monetary policy.. proof of concept has to follow.
Philippe Aghion CERGE-EI Lecture "Monetary Policy, Liquidity and Growth" 11 June 2012

11/06/12

Permalink 07:04:19 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 80 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Global Manufacturing Activity Graph

Manufacturing in the US grew in October at its slowest pace in more than three years and appears likely to act as a drag on overall growth in the final months of 2012. Markit said its U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 51.0 this month, below a preliminary estimate of 51.3 and September’s reading of 51.1. Today’s graphic shows how key economies performed in October based on Manufacturing PMI. see graph

Keywords: Global Manufacturing Activity, Manufacturing in World Regions

11/03/12

Permalink 12:03:53 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

Keywords: US Budget, Fiscal Cliff

11/02/12

Axel Merk and Nick Reece of Merk funds have some good thoughts in their latest newsletter:

"American consumers (and Chinese exporters) have been subsidized by the artificially weak Chinese currency, to the detriment of Chinese consumers who have faced stunted purchasing power. However, we believe this dynamic will continue to change and suggest that a stronger RMB is very likely not only on Bernanke, Obama, and Romney’s wish list, but increasingly in China’s own interest. That would mean the tables getting turned on the American consumer." Source: Merk Funds

Read the Newsletter here:

Axel Merk Funds: U.S. of A(sia) - United to Weaken the Dollar?! Axel Merk & Nick Reece, Merk Investments

Keywords: Currencies, Exchange Rates, Renminbi, RMB, US Dollar

10/27/12

Permalink 09:26:56 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 107 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

You find below selected feeds of think tanks, institutes and institutions which support the idea of liberty and free markets.

You find here comprehensive lists of libertarian think tanks around the globe:

List of libertarian think tanks (global list)

Stockholm Network (European)

Videos (on Youtube) of the Cato Institute (United States)

Podcast feed of the Cato Institute (United States)

The American Enterprise Institute (United States)

Mercatus Center (George Mason University, United States)

The Circle Bastiat(Mises, United States)

Videos (on Youtube) of The Adam Smith Institute (United Kingdom)

Institute of Economic Affairs IEA (United Kingdom)

Fondation pour L'Innovation Politique (France)

10/26/12

Permalink 07:09:18 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 12 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

The great economist about inflation and stimulus.

Keywords: Inflation, Quantity of Money

10/25/12

Permalink 09:24:56 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 91 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Reinhart and Rogoff, many times referred to on this platform, show in their latest article on Voxeu.org that the current recovery is not slower as those in previous financial crises.

The de-leveraging process is at the best in a beginning stage. We will see much more austerity and financial repression. A kind of bad prospects on a macro level... some "animal spirit" on a micro level can make life a bit sweeter .. at least for those who are looking for entrepreneurial challenges.

Source: Voxeu.org

Keywords: Financial Crisis, Recovery after Financial Crisis

Permalink 05:45:18 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 229 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States, Economics Global

Econbrowser: Guest Contribution: How “Different” is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis? By David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Oct. 23, 2012

The slow recovery from the financial crisis and recession of 2007 – 2009 has become a centerpiece of the Presidential election. In last Tuesday’s debate, Mitt Romney, picking up on a theme that has been emphasized by John Taylor, contrasted the current slow recovery with the much faster recovery from the 1981 – 1982 recession. During the past two weeks, there has been an intense focus on a comparison of the current recovery with recoveries from other financial crises. On October 11, Taylor, using historical data from a paper by Michael Bordo and Joseph Haubrich, argued that the current recovery is much slower than the average of previous American recessions associated with financial crises. This was followed by an October 14 paper by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff who argue that the aftermath of the U.S. financial crisis has been typical of the recoveries from other severe financial crises, an October 15 reply by Taylor, an October 16 rejoinder by Reinhart and Rogoff, an October 17 piece by Paul Krugman, and an October 17 reply by Taylor. read more on Econbrowser

Keywords: Financial Crisis, Revovery after Financial Crisis

Related:

Full recovery in 2016 - after the crisis began in 2007? Quite frustrating prospect. Could more "animal spirit" speed up the process?..

"animal spirit Robert Shiller"

Shiller: how animal spirits drive the economy, MarketObservation 2009

10/24/12

Permalink 08:47:31 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 49 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

We could read today in various newspapers that the IMF sees progress in the structural reforms in Southern European countries. The re-balancing of the wage levels to non-distorted conditions is a key process for long-term recovery. Following graph is amazing!

Source: FT Alphaville

Keywords: European Crisis, Market Distortions, Re-Balancing

Permalink 10:47:44 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Economic Development, Growth, Trust

10/19/12

Permalink 06:03:12 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 42 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

10/18/12

Permalink 07:40:09 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 5 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords:d Creativity, Innovation, Connected Mind

10/17/12

Permalink 07:13:34 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 37 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Fascinating interview. Creating value does not necessarily mean to take values out of companies but to create values in order to develop firms in the long-term. And much more about the subject..



Keywords: Value Creation, Fast Money

10/16/12

Permalink 06:38:01 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 145 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics United States

"By historical standards, the current recovery from the recession that began in 2007 has been disappointing. As John Taylor of Stanford University's Hoover Institution and the Department of Economics argues in Part 1 of this discussion on the economy, GDP has not returned to trend, the percent of the population that is working is flat rather than rising, and growth rates are below their usual levels after such a deep slump.


In this episode, Taylor and Number's Game host Russ Roberts discuss possible explanations for the sluggish recovery: the ongoing slump in construction employment, the effect of housing prices on saving and spending decisions by households, and this recovery's having been preceded by a financial crisis. Taylor rejects these arguments, arguing instead that the sluggish recovery can be explained by poor economic policy decisions made by the Bush and the Obama administrations."

Keywords: US Economy, US Recovery

10/15/12

Permalink 09:47:19 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 231 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe

Good new paper by Buchheit, Gulati, exporing 5 options for the Eurozone:

The 5 Options:

Option 1: Jolly the markets
Option 2: Massage the yields
Option 3: Full bailout
Option 4: Reprofiling
Option 5: Full (Greek-style) restructuring

Buchheit, Lee C. and Gulati, G. Mitu, The Eurozone Debt Crisis -- The Options Now (October 8, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2158850

Abstract:

"The Eurozone debt crisis is entering its third year. The original objective of the official sector’s response to the crisis -- containment -- has failed. All of the countries of peripheral Europe are now in play; three of them (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) operate under full official sector bailout programs.

The prospect of the crisis engulfing the larger peripheral countries, Spain and Italy, has sparked a new round of official sector containment measures. These will involve active intervention by official sector players such as the European Central Bank in order to preserve market access for the affected countries.

This paper surveys the options now facing the sovereign debtors and their official sector sponsors. It concludes that there are no painless or riskless options. In the end, the question may come down to this -- to what extent will the official sector sponsors of peripheral Europe be prepared to take on their own shoulders (and off of the shoulders of private sector lenders) a significant portion of the debt stocks of these countries during this period of fiscal adjustment?"

Keywords: Europe, European Union, European Crisis

Permalink 06:41:12 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 3 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Global

Keywords: Money, Inflation

10/14/12

Permalink 10:50:19 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 267 words   English (US)
Categories: Economics Europe, Economics Global

Major firms are considering relocation from politically unstable high tax EU jurisdictions to more stable countries such as Switzerland: Coca Cola leaves Greece heading for Switzerland, Oct. 12, 2012

In an environment with tax competition and competing political systems (a favorable state, as compared to more and more central planning!) politicians in respective problem countries will only have limited possibilities to increase taxes as output could decrease substantially. The relationship between tax increases, government income and economic output is shown in following graphs:

Source: Lukas, Vogel, Tax avoidance and fiscal limits: Laffer curves in an economy with informal sector, Economic Papers 448, European Comission, January 2012

Source: Lukas, Vogel, Tax avoidance and fiscal limits: Laffer curves in an economy with informal sector, Economic Papers 448, European Comission, January 2012

"Taken at face value, the results suggest that the capacity to create additional tax revenue does not appear to be the first binding constraint on using tax increases for fiscal consolidation, because not many countries are likely to be located on the downward sloping part of the Laffer curve. This is particularly true with regard to the consumption tax. On the other hand, the model misses important aspects of tax competition, such as portfolio and profit shifting across jurisdictions".. Lukas, Vogel, Tax avoidance and fiscal limits: Laffer curves in an economy with informal sector, Economic Papers 448, European Comission, January 2012

Kewords: Tax Revenue, Laffer Curve, Output and Taxes

Related:

Cato Institute: "tax competition is a powerful mechanism to restrain the greed of the political class"

Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Oct. 10, 2011

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