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Real Estate - Latest real estate developments, mortgage and lending watch

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07/31/13


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US real estate: recovery accelerates

Permalink 07:54:12 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 189 words   English (US)
Categories: Market research, United States

Zillow Real Estate Research: 2013 Spring Selling Season Was Hottest Since 2004, As Recovery Accelerates & Widens, July 22, 2013

Zillow’s second quarter Real Estate Market Reports , released today, show home values increased 2.4% from the first quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2013 to $161,100 (Figure 1). This quarter marks the largest annual gain since August 2006 and largest quarterly gain since the fourth quarter of 2005. On an annual basis, the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose from June 2012 levels (Figure 2). Monthly appreciation remains strong with national home values growing by 0.9% from May. Not only did the pace of home value appreciation quicken in the second quarter, but the recovery also fully took hold nationwide. Markets in some areas of the Northeast, Midwest and Southeastern U.S., such as Atlanta, Chicago and St. Louis, that had previously been slow to turn the corner began to appreciate, which helped boost the overall national market. All of the top 30 largest metro areas covered by Zillow experienced annual appreciation in home values as of the end of the second quarter, and all have hit their bottom. read more on Zillow Real Estate Research

Keywords: US Real Estate Market, Case Shiller

07/14/13

Permalink 03:15:11 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 49 words   English (US)
Categories: Market characteristics, United States

Bloomberg: Blackstone Raises $5 Billion Rental Bet With Lending Arm, July 8, 2013

The private-equity firm that has spent $5 billion on more than 30,000 distressed houses, is preparing to expand its bet on the housing recovery by lending to other landlords. read more on Bloomberg

Keywords: US Real Estate, Housing, US Housing Recovery

07/09/13

Permalink 08:19:57 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 67 words   English (US)
Categories: United States

Calculated Risk:

..."My view is rising rates might slow price increases but not lead to a decline in prices (other than some seasonal declines). As far as the housing recovery (residential investment such as housing starts and new home sales), I think rising mortgage rates will have a minimal impact."

read more on Calculated Risk:

Keywords: Housing Prices, Mortgage Rates, Correlation between Housing Prices and Mortgage Rates

05/09/13

UCLA researchers have found that leading up to the Financial Crisis, subprime lenders employed a novel method of influencing the political process. In addition to campaign contributions to key politicians, they gave special treatment to borrowers represented by key congressional leaders.

AEI: A study in crony capitalism: Subprime lenders offered better deals to borrowers in districts of congressional big shots, May 6, 2013

read more on AEIdeas

Keywords: Subprime, Crony Capitalism,

11/11/12

Permalink 05:02:42 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 299 words   English (US)
Categories: Market characteristics, Europe, United States, Gobal

Schlumpf, Felix, Tessera, Genene and Martínez Gutierrez, Catalina , Market Risk of Real Estate (October 24, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2172299

Abstract:

"Direct real estate is the largest asset class without readily available prices. The market capitalization is comparable to that of equities and fixed income, and much larger than that of other alternative asset classes like private equity or hedge funds. Nevertheless, because of the missing price information, it is difficult to estimate the market risk of direct real estate. We propose a simple methodology that uses data on indirect real estate to provide a better understanding of the real estate market risk. Our model uses widely available data and solves the problems posed by the appraisal and transaction-based indices, as well as by the hedonic approach, which are difficult to implement in practice. In particular, we use data on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) returns, determine their factor exposures to other asset classes, and delever these exposures according to REITs’ balance sheets. We find that the existing direct indices understate real estate market risk. Indeed, using data from the UK, the volatility of the real estate asset class that our model entails is almost three times that of appraisal-based indices, and two times that of transaction-based ones. In addition, the correlations to other asset classes are materially different and higher, which is important in a portfolio context. We argue that these findings can have important empirical implications, as they can be useful for practitioners aiming at achieving a simple, transparent and more accurate risk management of their portfolios. Moreover, our findings can help to better understand extreme risks in the real estate market, which have a high impact on the overall economy, as was observed in the recent financial crisis." SSRN

Keywords: Public and Private Real Estate, Real Estate Risk

10/21/12










Keywords: Monetary Policy, Interest Rates, Housing Market, Housing Prices

10/20/12

Permalink 10:55:07 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 8 words   English (US)
Categories: Market research, Market characteristics

Source: FT Alphaville

Keywords: Rental Housing, Interest Rates

06/01/12

Permalink 09:16:18 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 26 words   English (US)
Categories: Europe

05/13/12

Permalink 08:01:03 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 20 words   English (US)
Categories: Market characteristics, United States, Asia

Questioning Homeownership as a Public Policy Goal, Cato Policy Analysis No. 696

Keywords: US Real Estate Market, Home Ownership, Financial Crisis

05/11/12

Forbes: A Monster Real Estate Paradigm Shift Demands A New Direction for Capital, by Michael Messner, May 10, 2012

..."We are witnesses and participants to a perfect storm of enormous and unstoppable trends triggered by the Internet, by Americans downsizing their lifestyles and increasing their savings, and of dynamic technology displacing capital intensive, asset-oriented investments. As a result of this sweeping sea change, we face a trillion dollar glut of commercial property threatening our communities, businesses, hundreds of small and mid-sized banks, as well as the FDIC."...

Keywords: Technological Change, Creative Destruction, US Real Estate

05/06/12

Christopher L. Foote, Kristopher S. Gerardi, and Paul S. Willen, Why Did So Many People Make So Many Ex Post Bad Decisions? The Causes of the Foreclosure Crisis, Atlanta Fed, Working Paper 2012-7, May 2012

Abstract:

"We present 12 facts about the mortgage crisis. We argue that the facts refute the popular story that the crisis resulted from finance industry insiders deceiving uninformed mortgage borrowers and investors. Instead, we argue that borrowers and investors made decisions that were rational and logical given their ex post overly optimistic beliefs about house prices. We then show that neither institutional features of the mortgage market nor financial innovations are any more likely to explain those distorted beliefs than they are to explain the Dutch tulip bubble 400 years ago. Economists should acknowledge the limits of our understanding of asset price bubbles and design policies accordingly."


Keywords: Financial Crisis, Mortgage, Foreclosure, Asymmetric Information,

03/19/12

Permalink 09:30:29 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 19 words   English (US)
Categories: Market research, Market characteristics, Asia

FT Alphaville on Chinese Real Estate, March 19, 2012

Keywords: Chinese Real Estate, Chinese Real Estate Sales, Chinese Real Estate Prices

Barron's: Ready to Rebound, After falling 34% over the past six years, U.S. home prices will soon bottom. They could turn back up by spring 2013

It hit with the ferocity of an Old Testament plague, wiping out large populations of homeowners in the U.S. Five million of the country's 76 million mortgage holders have lost their homes to foreclosure or lender-ordered short sales since 2006, and an estimated 14 million more owe more on their homes than their properties are currently worth. In all, some $7.4 trillion in homeowners' equity has been destroyed, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, and more than two million jobs in the home-building industry disappeared. read the article on Barron's

Keywords: US Housing Market, US House Prices

03/09/12

Permalink 06:54:34 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 46 words   English (US)
Categories: Market research, United States

Robert Shiller, Yale University professor and the "Shiller" in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, discusses whether the housing market has already hit the bottom: "It could turnaround but I don't see any scientific way to be assured."











March 7, 2012

Keywords: US Real Estate, US Housing Market

02/19/12

Permalink 10:29:48 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 67 words   English (US)
Categories: Market characteristics, United States

CNBC: US Housing Among Most Attractive Assets: Marc Faber, Feb. 17, 2012

The housing market in the south of the United States is among the most attractive asset classes in the world, Marc Faber, the editor of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC on Friday, because while homebuilder stocks had rallied, property prices hadn't moved much. read more on CNBC

Keywords: US Real Estate, US Housing Market

02/07/12

The confidence level could massively improve if people start to realize that the housing bottom is reached. Read an interesting post on CalculatedRisk:

Calculated Risk: The Housing Bottom is Here, Feb. 6, 2012

Keywords: US Housing, Housing Bottom

10/22/11

Permalink 02:20:17 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 266 words   English (US)
Categories: United States, Asia

Kazuo Ueda, Japan's Bubble, America's Bubble and China's Bubble, The University of Tokyo, November 2010

Abstract:

"This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in asset prices: Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the U.S. since the mid 1990s; and China during the last decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, the increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and seem to warrant a careful comparative study. I first examine the behavior of asset prices, especially, property prices in the three cases and point out some similarities. I then go on to discuss some backgrounds for the behavior of asset prices. I emphasize the role played by extremely easy monetary policy for generating bubble like asset price behaviors in the three cases. Monetary policy was shown to be easier than standard policy rules like the Taylor rule indicates. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the U.S. case the monetary authority was concerned over the risk of deflation in the early to mid 2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the authorities of both countries were seriously concerned with possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. Japan let the exchange rate appreciate, while China has resisted a large scale intervention. It is shown, however, that the behavior of real exchange rates has not been that different. Implications of such a finding for the future of the Chinese economy are also discussed."

Keywords: Real Estate, Chinese Real Estate, US Real Estate

10/19/11

Permalink 03:38:08 pm, by editor of MarketObservation.com, 32 words   English (US)
Categories: News, United States

Regulatory policy mess cont'd...

Keywords: US Real Estate, US Homeowners, Underwater Homeowners

Related:

about individual responsibility..

Subprime: "A disproportionate number of those being foreclosed on were well-educated, well-off and relatively young people"

10/17/11

Permalink 07:04:35 am, by editor of MarketObservation.com Email , 154 words   English (US)
Categories: News, United States

Government sponsored and bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are partying, as Gretchen Morgenson reports:

NYT: Fannie and Freddie, Still the Socialites, by Gretchen Morgenson, Oct. 15, 2011

Nothing wrong with a bit of schmoozing. But it might seem jarring that Freddie, which was rescued by Washington and today exists at the pleasure of taxpayers, paid $80,000 to become a “platinum” sponsor of this shindig. Fannie Mae, that other ward of the state, paid $60,000 to become a “gold” sponsor.

Keep in mind that taxpayers bailed out Fannie and Freddie to the tune of about $150 billion.

Today, Fannie and Freddie are about the only games in mortgage town. Yes, banks make loans, but more often than not they hand them off to one of the two. So it’s a mystery why Fannie and Freddie needed to help foot the bill for the gathering.

read more of this "light" story in the NYT

Keywords: Fannie, Freddie, US Mortgages

10/11/11

William R. Emmons, Kathy Fogel, Wayne Y. Lee, Deena Rorie, Liping Ma and Timothy J. Yeager, The Foreclosure Crisis in 2008: Predatory Lending or Household Overreaching? St. Louis Fed, July 2011

At least early in the financial crisis, the high rate of foreclosures seemed to be due more to households' overreaching than to predatory lending. A disproportionate number of those being foreclosed on were well-educated, well-off and relatively young people. get to the paper

Keywords: Subprime Crisis, Lending, Predatory Lending

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